Electricity forecast adapted to ocean conditions: the Mutriku case study

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dc.contributor.authorCasas, Isabel
dc.contributor.authorLekube, Jon
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-25T14:57:54Z
dc.date.available2025-03-25T14:57:54Z
dc.date.issued2024-08
dc.date.updated2025-03-25T14:57:53Z
dc.description.abstractIt is essential for any wave power plant at the commercialising stage to accurately model and forecast its production to ensure a good functioning and an efficient trading in the daily wholesale electricity market. Altogether, a reliable forecast is a required step for the establishment of wave energy as a sustainable and viable source of electricity. We propose models whose coefficients adapt to the variation of ocean conditions and apply them to model/estimate and forecast the electricity production of two oscillating wave converters from the Mutriku Wave Power Plant during 2018. After a statistical analysis comparing different approaches, we recommend to model the production using a regression with coefficients depending on the wave height and to do short-term forecast using an autoregressive function with coefficients also depending on the wave height.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThe first author acknowledges financial support from the Danish Independent Research Fund (grant no. 8142-00010B) and the Carlsberg Foundation, Denmark (grant no. CF19-0164)en
dc.identifier.citationCasas, I., & Lekube, J. (2024). Electricity forecast adapted to ocean conditions: The Mutriku case study. Applied Ocean Research, 149. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APOR.2024.104065
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/J.APOR.2024.104065
dc.identifier.issn0141-1187
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14454/2570
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd
dc.rights© 2024 The Authors
dc.subject.otherElectricity forecast
dc.subject.otherMutriku Wave Power Plant
dc.subject.otherTime series
dc.subject.otherVarying coefficients regression
dc.subject.otherWave energy
dc.titleElectricity forecast adapted to ocean conditions: the Mutriku case studyen
dc.typejournal article
dcterms.accessRightsopen access
oaire.citation.titleApplied Ocean Research
oaire.citation.volume149
oaire.licenseConditionhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
oaire.versionVoR
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