Electricity forecast adapted to ocean conditions: the Mutriku case study
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Fecha
2024-08
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Elsevier Ltd
Resumen
It is essential for any wave power plant at the commercialising stage to accurately model and forecast its production to ensure a good functioning and an efficient trading in the daily wholesale electricity market. Altogether, a reliable forecast is a required step for the establishment of wave energy as a sustainable and viable source of electricity. We propose models whose coefficients adapt to the variation of ocean conditions and apply them to model/estimate and forecast the electricity production of two oscillating wave converters from the Mutriku Wave Power Plant during 2018. After a statistical analysis comparing different approaches, we recommend to model the production using a regression with coefficients depending on the wave height and to do short-term forecast using an autoregressive function with coefficients also depending on the wave height.
Palabras clave
Electricity forecast
Mutriku Wave Power Plant
Time series
Varying coefficients regression
Wave energy
Mutriku Wave Power Plant
Time series
Varying coefficients regression
Wave energy
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Materias
Cita
Casas, I., & Lekube, J. (2024). Electricity forecast adapted to ocean conditions: The Mutriku case study. Applied Ocean Research, 149. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APOR.2024.104065