Asylum migration, borders, and terrorism in a structural gravity model

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dc.contributor.authorCarril Caccia, Federico
dc.contributor.authorPaniagua Soriano, Jordi
dc.contributor.authorRequena Silvente, Francisco
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-06T10:00:15Z
dc.date.available2025-06-06T10:00:15Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-28
dc.date.updated2025-06-06T10:00:15Z
dc.description.abstractIn this article, we examine the impact of terrorist attacks on asylum‐related migration flows. So far, the literature that examines the “push factors” such as terrorism that explain forced migration has omitted the fact that the vast majority of people forced to flee typically do so toward other locations within the country. The novel feature of our research is the estimation of a structural gravity equation that includes both international migration and internally displaced persons (IDP), a theoretically consistent framework that allows us to identify country‐specific variables such as terror attacks. For that purpose, we use information on the number of asylum applications, the number of IDP, and the number of terrorist attacks in each country for a sample of 119 origin developing countries and 141 destination countries over 2009–2018. The empirical results reveal several interesting and policy‐relevant traits. Firstly, forced migration abroad is still minimal compared to IDP, but globalization forces are pushing up the ratio. Secondly, terror violence has a positive and significant effect on asylum migration flows relative to the number of IDP. Thirdly, omitting internally displaced people biases downward the impact of terrorism on asylum applications. Fourthly, we observe regional heterogeneity in the effect of terrorism on asylum migration flows; in Latin America, terrorist attacks have a much larger impact on the number of asylum applications relative to IDP than in Asia or Africa.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors would like to acknowledge the financial support from Junta de Andalucía (SEJ 413), from Generalitat Valenciana (GV Prometeo 2018/102 and GV/2020/012), the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (RTI2018–100899‐B‐I00, co‐financed with FEDER), and the Kellogg Institute for International Studies (University of Notre Dame).en
dc.identifier.citationCarril‐caccia, F., Paniagua, J., & Requena, F. (2021). Asylum migration, borders, and terrorism in a structural gravity model. Politics and Governance, 9(4), 146-158. https://doi.org/10.17645/PAG.V9I4.4438
dc.identifier.doi10.17645/PAG.V9I4.4438
dc.identifier.eissn2183-2463
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14454/2956
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherCogitatio Press
dc.rights© 2021 by the authors
dc.subjectAsylum migration
dc.subjectForced migration
dc.subjectInternally displaced persons
dc.subjectStructural gravity
dc.subjectTerrorism
dc.titleAsylum migration, borders, and terrorism in a structural gravity modelen
dc.typejournal article
dcterms.accessRightsopen access
oaire.citation.endPage158
oaire.citation.issue4
oaire.citation.startPage146
oaire.citation.titlePolitics and Governance
oaire.citation.volume9
oaire.licenseConditionhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
oaire.versionVoR
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