Casas, IsabelLekube, Jon2025-03-252025-03-252024-08Casas, I., & Lekube, J. (2024). Electricity forecast adapted to ocean conditions: The Mutriku case study. Applied Ocean Research, 149. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APOR.2024.1040650141-118710.1016/J.APOR.2024.104065http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14454/2570It is essential for any wave power plant at the commercialising stage to accurately model and forecast its production to ensure a good functioning and an efficient trading in the daily wholesale electricity market. Altogether, a reliable forecast is a required step for the establishment of wave energy as a sustainable and viable source of electricity. We propose models whose coefficients adapt to the variation of ocean conditions and apply them to model/estimate and forecast the electricity production of two oscillating wave converters from the Mutriku Wave Power Plant during 2018. After a statistical analysis comparing different approaches, we recommend to model the production using a regression with coefficients depending on the wave height and to do short-term forecast using an autoregressive function with coefficients also depending on the wave height.eng© 2024 The AuthorsElectricity forecastMutriku Wave Power PlantTime seriesVarying coefficients regressionWave energyjournal article2025-03-25